Today, you could get 8-1 on the Denver Nuggets to win the NBA’s Western Conference at Parx Casino in Pennsylvania, 19-1 on the New Orleans Saints to be NFL champions from Fanduel’s sports book at the Meadowlands and 15-1 on Kansas to win the NCAA men’s basketball title at Delaware Park.
Unfortunately, at these racetracks, or at the ADWs available to customers in those states, betting at a fixed price on the 2020 Kentucky Derby is not yet available.
Would you like to lock-in 20-1 on impressive Breeders’ Futurity winner Maxfield to land the 2020 Kentucky Derby? What about 25-1 on Storm The Court or Anneau D’Or, the exacta finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile?
How about 20-1 on Dennis’ Moment or 25-1 on Eight Rings?
Or 33-1 on Hopeful winner Basin?
You won’t be able to do any of that in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 which opened on Thursday and is available across ADW platforms. But, sadly, you could have secured all of those prices on Wednesday as an American betting through an offshore, fixed-odds provider – an illegal act, nonetheless. This same provider routinely publishes original content about American racing, engages with American horsemen via social media and tries to persuade readers like YOU to open accounts. It offers fixed odds futures on major racing events.
Funding accounts through such sites, again, is illegal. None of the betting revenue is shared with horsemen through purses.
Imagine if you could bet on horses to win the Kentucky Derby from, say, Labor Day through to Derby entry day – getting a fixed price, set by Churchill Downs, on any horse that won a maiden race, ran in a stakes race or earned points on the Derby trail. The bar for success on such a plan would be rather low. Total handle for the combined pools of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager has averaged just 1.1% of the total tote betting on the race itself over the last ten years.
For a race which captures more public awareness than almost any other, a future bet with just 24 total entries on four weekends, compared to the race itself, with a maximum and likely field of 20, lacks the creative spark needed to draw meaningful, modern investment. The addition of the sire wager, now in its second year, has added a nice spin.
Now imagine prices for horses being reset after every stakes race, from tomorrow’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, to the Nashua at Aqueduct on December 8 and all the way on towards the first Saturday in May. As the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation has noted in previous publications, the limits of a future tote bet, opened only for four weekends on the Derby trail, pales in comparison to the fixed odds options available to sports bettors in an ever-increasing number of states. TIF Executive Director Patrick Cummings testified before a Kentucky legislative committee on the benefits of fixed odds. The TIF's report on the topic is HERE, while you can also review the legislative minutes of that meeting HERE.
Customers in Nevada can access future bets through William Hill’s sports books, but that’s about the legal extent of such an offering on racing.
So what’s the good news with the Kentucky Derby Future Wager?
Churchill Downs is offering free past performances through Brisnet. Click HERE to get them.
Wagering on the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and Sire Future Wager closes at 6pm on Sunday, December 1 – at which point you would know exactly your final price should your five-month advanced wager be successful.